Mark my words: this group of sophomores will lead this team to success in the next three years. These guys are talented, and if you made a couple of small position changes they could make a decent starting five. I don't think the five of them will ever start together (though four may) but this group represents the core of BYU basketball over the coming seasons.
Josh Sharp, F
Oh, what to do with Josh Sharp? I really like his scrappy style of play, and he seems to have a real good head for the game. He almost always is in the right place at the right time, but he simply does not look like he is going to see playing time on this squad. His offensive capabilities are severely limited: 39.1 percent shooting, 20 percent three point shooting, 60.9 percent from the free throw line. To go along with low percentages his decision making when the ball is in his hands is often quite worrisome. In all fairness, he was a freshman who had just returned home from his mission, so I do think he is capable of turning things around on the offensive end.
Defensively he does fairly well. I would never accuse him of being a shut-down defender, and I would never expect him to guard an opponents' best player, however he does his part, stays aggressive and plays with heart, which can go a long way in the college game.
But where can Coach Rose use him? The guard line is so stacked that Brock Zylstra, Stephen Rogers, and Tyler Haws will all likely be playing as wing in a three guard type lineup, so he won't see much playing time there. He is not built like a power forward, so it would be very tough for him to compete for playing time with Nate Austin, Agustin Ambrosino, and Chris Collinsworth. In my mind it appears that Sharp may be relegated to a Nick Martineau type role, playing just one or two minutes in the blowout games. If he can develop offensively, he could see some more playing time as a junior.
Anson Winder, G
Anson Winder's presence in this lineup, along with Craig Cusick, Matt Carlino, Tyler Haws, Brock Zylstra, Raul Delgado and an incoming freshman or two, may bring flashbacks to the 2009-2010 season. That roster included Jimmer Fredette, Jackson Emery, Tyler Haws, Charles Abouo, Mike Loyd Jr., Lamont Morgan Jr., and Jonathon Tavernari who all saw significant playing time playing at the guard position, often times in a three guard set. Those players were rotated out frequently, keeping fresh legs in the game without seeing a significant drop off in talent level - unless of course you take out Jimmer or Jackson, but each of these players could hold their own.
But back to Wiinder: he will certainly see playing time this upcoming season. He is a work horse on the defensive end of the ball. He has speed and defends with his feet. He has the potential to become the next lock down defender to replace Jackson Emery's prowess. Those are big shoes to fill, but I feel that he can do it to at least some degree.
Offensively he needs to become more consistent. He is a shooter, but when the team struggled behind the arc, so did he. The more consistent of a scorer he becomes, the more playing time he will see. He won't start this year, but he will almost certainly see playing time every game, especially when an opposing guard needs to be pressured.
Nate Austin, F
My favorite statistic of last season: Nate Austin averaged 8.4 fouls per 40 minutes played. Yeah... that's a problem. Nate has a tremendous upside - shooting touch with range, defense, ability to take a charge (I say take a charge because he doesn't just draw charges, he stands in and takes a beating for them) - but if he is thrust into the starting role I believe he will be, he needs to cut down on his foul trouble so that he can have an impact on the game.
I really love the aggressive style of play and passion that Nate Austin puts on display every time he steps on the court. Like I said, he is not afraid to step in and take a beating if it will benefit the team, and that is something that will pay dividends for the Cougars. He attacks the basket hard and he can step out and hit the occasional three with delicate touch. If he can add some back-to-the-basket post moves he will really be a problem for opposing defenses as they will have to adjust to stop two very versatile bigs in Austin and Brandon Davies.
Even if he doesn't develop into an overwhelming offensive threat, he will still play a large role on this team. BYU has plenty of scorers, so it would not be helpful for Nate to put up ten points a night, but it will be much more crucial for him to develop defensively. He is very good at defending in the post, but how good will he be against more versatile and quick power forwards? With him and Brandon Davies both on the floor I would not be at all surprised to see Coach Rose play even more zone than this past year when they played far above the normal amount since Rose came to town.
Again, look for Nate Austin to be an all around impact on the floor, but most importantly he needs to stay on the floor and out of foul trouble.
Matt Carlino, G
I know several people were frustrated with the play of Matt Carlino this past season. But seriously? The kid was a freshman, did we honestly expect him to come in and be just like Jimmer from the get go? He flashes a remarkable amount of potential and clearly gives Cougar Nation a lot to be excited about, but it is really too bad that unrealistic expectations of near perfection were placed on him last year to the point we forgot what he really was: a freshman.
Matt is an incredibly gifted point guard; he has excellent court vision and is a great passer. However, those two assets also result in some poor decisions on occasion as he has a tendency to get sped up a little bit and push the floor a little bit faster than needed, which results in a few turnovers along the way. Matt is also part of the scoring point guard generation, so sometimes he seemed to forget that he was mostly intended to be a pass first point. He will adjust to that and become an effective distributor, and he will cut down on the turnovers as the college game starts to slow down some for him.
In my mind, Matt Carlino is destined for stardom. Will he be the next Jimmer? No, probably not. But he is absolutely a gifted basketball player and he will become the key piece for the Cougars. He may never lead the team in scoring, he may never be a lock down defender, but he will become the point guard that Coach Rose needs to lead this Cougar squad to success.
Tyler Haws, G
You have no idea how excited I am. I was in Colorado as a missionary during Haws' freshman season, so I have yet to see him play. I have heard nothing but good things, and I have watched replays of a couple of the games he played in, and those praises certainly seem to be justified.
Haws just returned home from his mission a week or two ago and I would imagine he has hit the basketball court every day so far. One thing I have learned in my research about him is that he had a fantastic work ethic, and I don't think a mission will have changed that. He should provide a real scoring spark and make an immediate impact on next year's squad. His mid-range game is quite impressive, and that active streak of 48 straight made free throws is outstanding. If he can become a little more consistent from behind the arc (he shot 36.8 percent as a freshman) to go along with his remarkable 49.8 percent shooting overall he could quickly become the focus of opposing defenses, freeing up the depth around him to do some real damage.
I expect Tyler Haws to start and become the star of this team along with Brandon Davies. I also expect that within the next couple of years the Cougar offense will work mostly through him.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
BYU Basketball: A Look at the 2012-2013 Juniors
There are one, maybe two juniors (I'll get to the Chris Collinsworth situation) on the 2012-2013 team. I actually like that. Four seniors, two juniors is good upper-class leadership, but it leaves a wealth of youth around which BYU can build this program.
These two guys, Raul Delgado and Chris Collinsworth, are pretty difficult to analyze as one is a JuCo transfer and the other has been injured basically since he returned home from his mission, but I'll give it a shot based on my research and impressions from what little I have seen.
Raul Delgado, G:
I have never seen him play, I can't find a single highlight video of him anywhere, and I really don't know much about him, so this will be a challenge. Here's what I do know: he's a 6-2 shooting guard with the ability to run the point when called upon. He averaged 18.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.7 turnovers per game last season at Western Nebraska Community College. He shot 49 percent from the floor and 43 percent from three point range. That kind of consistent shooting as he steps up to Division-I ball will be key for him to get playing time in a guard-laden BYU lineup.
Delgado's assist-to-turnover ratio is also a positive for him, and if that remains a constant he may be asked to shoulder a part of Craig Cusick's role and protect the ball when things get sloppy. I imagine him coming off the bench to add an additional scoring threat, particularly when Tyler Haws needs a breather. Delgado will likely be competing with Anson Winder for minutes in that role, and they may split time depending on the situation. If the Cougars need a scoring boost, I would give the nod to Delgado due to Winder's inconsistencies in that department. But if the Cougars need a lock-down defender, I would guess Winder will fill that role this year (it was Jackson Emery for three years, then Charles Abouo last year, now I think it's Winder's turn.) I cannot find Delgado's minutes per game anywhere, but I would imagine he played at least twice as many minutes as Winder, so his 1.8 steals versus Winder's 1.0 may not indicate better defense.
Raul Delgado will add an intriguing option off the bench for Coach Rose, and it will be interesting to see Delgado play. If he can take his skill to the next level and work D-I opponents like he did NJCAA defenders, he may have the potential to challenge Tyler Haws' mission legs for significant playing time, however, I foresee he will come off the bench to play point guard, shooting guard, or even a little small forward depending on the situation and who needs a breather.
Agustin Ambrosino, F:
Forgive me if I don't sound overly ecstatic at the signing of Agustin Ambrosino. He seems like a really talented player and a good kid, but I simply don't see an incredible future in a Cougar uniform for him. Will he get playing time? Almost definitely. I mean, he's a 6-8 forward, and that is where this team needs more depth, however, he is still going to have a fair bit of competition.
He only started 21 of 31 games this year for Salt Lake Community College, so he does not seem to be the typical JuCo recruit this coaching staff goes after. It may be a little unfair to say this, but he "only" averaged 9.6 points per game. I say that might be unfair to say because he was the second leading scorer on a team that had all twelve guys average between 3.4 and 10.6 points a game. He was sixth on his team in minutes per game. Now in his defense it seems that SLCC's coaching philosophy is focused on team ball, player development, and playing time for all, so let the optimism begin!
From the sounds of it, Ambrosino seems to be an interesting hybrid between Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock with his own special twist. Coach Rose said, "Agustin's an athletic big man who can really get up and down the floor," which reminds me of Brandon Davies who runs the floor rather well. He is also supposed to be rather crafty around the basket, but more of a face up post player like Noah was, particularly his junior year. He has range like Noah, but Ambrosino may be a bigger threat from the outside that Hartsock. Ambrosino shot 43.8 percent from the outside, 49.8 percent overall, and 77.8 percent from the free throw line. He averaged 9.6 points and 5.3 rebounds in playing less than half of each game. So given the chance it seems he can be very efficient. It still worries me that there really are not any other statistical categories I can excitedly mention regarding him.
Where will he fit in? Well, if Chris Collinsworth gets healthy (see below) it will come down to Ambrosino and Ian Harward to battle it out for some playing time, so there is a chance he will get hardly any. However, Brandon Davies, and especially Nate Austin have a tendency to get into foul trouble, and Collinsworth is no guarantee, and Harward will be coming off a redshirt year and has never played college ball, so Ambrosino needs to come ready to play. If he can work hard and possibly develop some back to the basket moves, he could become a key piece of the rotation down low. He is a necessary addition due to the lack of depth in the Cougar frontcourt, but it will be interesting to see what kind of playing time he gets and what he is able to do with it playing against bigger, better opponents.
Chris Collinsworth, F:
Chris Collinsworth is an interesting case. He used a medical redshirt in 2010-2011 after playing in nine games, averaging 16.3 minutes, 5.9 points, and 5.6 rebounds per game. In 2012-2013 he played just two games, totaling twelve minutes, two shots, and zero points before aggravating his injured knee and being sidelined the remainder of the season. It would seem logical that the NCAA grant him another redshirt year, making him a sophomore entering the 2012-2013 season, so let's hope that happens. But just so Raul Delgado doesn't stand alone as the only Cougar junior, let's look at Chris Collinsworth's game in this post.
Collinsworth's freshman year provides a couple of insights into his talents as a player, but we certainly cannot judge his offensive productivity based on those statistics. As a freshman he played 15.9 minutes per game (2.6 shy of Jimmer Fredette's freshman minutes per game that same season) and averaged 3.2 points per game. His shooting percentages were incredibly low (37.5 FG, 18.2 3FG, 43.1 FT) but perhaps we can attribute that to freshman jitters. I would not expect his three point shooting to be much higher, but in his medical redshirt year he did shoot 41 percent from the floor and 74.1 percent from the free throw line, though he was just 1 of 8 from three (12.5 percent.) So he has displayed the ability to put the ball in the basket, but it would seem that his strength lies in being aggressive, which is a nice reflection of his ability to fight through injury starting in his youth and going through high school and the past two college seasons. Like I said, he averaged 5.6 rebounds in the nine games of his medical redshirt year, and 4.8 rebounds per game his freshman year.
First and foremost, Collinsworth needs to get healthy and I wish him the best in that effort. It has to be incredibly frustrating for him to sit on the sideline game after game, and I hope he can get back on the floor this upcoming season. If he can do that, he will add much needed depth in the post for the Cougars, and will see valuable playing time and make some important contributions on the glass and hopefully put some points on the board.
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UPDATE
According to Dick Harmon of Deseret News, Chris Collinsworth was just cleared for daily weight-bearing workouts. That is a nice step in the rehabilitation process for him and I wish him continued luck.
Also, if anyone has an additional information on Raul Delgado or Agustin Ambrosino (or any players for that matter) or a highlight video of him, please let me know.
These two guys, Raul Delgado and Chris Collinsworth, are pretty difficult to analyze as one is a JuCo transfer and the other has been injured basically since he returned home from his mission, but I'll give it a shot based on my research and impressions from what little I have seen.
Raul Delgado, G:
I have never seen him play, I can't find a single highlight video of him anywhere, and I really don't know much about him, so this will be a challenge. Here's what I do know: he's a 6-2 shooting guard with the ability to run the point when called upon. He averaged 18.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.7 turnovers per game last season at Western Nebraska Community College. He shot 49 percent from the floor and 43 percent from three point range. That kind of consistent shooting as he steps up to Division-I ball will be key for him to get playing time in a guard-laden BYU lineup.
Delgado's assist-to-turnover ratio is also a positive for him, and if that remains a constant he may be asked to shoulder a part of Craig Cusick's role and protect the ball when things get sloppy. I imagine him coming off the bench to add an additional scoring threat, particularly when Tyler Haws needs a breather. Delgado will likely be competing with Anson Winder for minutes in that role, and they may split time depending on the situation. If the Cougars need a scoring boost, I would give the nod to Delgado due to Winder's inconsistencies in that department. But if the Cougars need a lock-down defender, I would guess Winder will fill that role this year (it was Jackson Emery for three years, then Charles Abouo last year, now I think it's Winder's turn.) I cannot find Delgado's minutes per game anywhere, but I would imagine he played at least twice as many minutes as Winder, so his 1.8 steals versus Winder's 1.0 may not indicate better defense.
Raul Delgado will add an intriguing option off the bench for Coach Rose, and it will be interesting to see Delgado play. If he can take his skill to the next level and work D-I opponents like he did NJCAA defenders, he may have the potential to challenge Tyler Haws' mission legs for significant playing time, however, I foresee he will come off the bench to play point guard, shooting guard, or even a little small forward depending on the situation and who needs a breather.
Agustin Ambrosino, F:
Forgive me if I don't sound overly ecstatic at the signing of Agustin Ambrosino. He seems like a really talented player and a good kid, but I simply don't see an incredible future in a Cougar uniform for him. Will he get playing time? Almost definitely. I mean, he's a 6-8 forward, and that is where this team needs more depth, however, he is still going to have a fair bit of competition.
He only started 21 of 31 games this year for Salt Lake Community College, so he does not seem to be the typical JuCo recruit this coaching staff goes after. It may be a little unfair to say this, but he "only" averaged 9.6 points per game. I say that might be unfair to say because he was the second leading scorer on a team that had all twelve guys average between 3.4 and 10.6 points a game. He was sixth on his team in minutes per game. Now in his defense it seems that SLCC's coaching philosophy is focused on team ball, player development, and playing time for all, so let the optimism begin!
From the sounds of it, Ambrosino seems to be an interesting hybrid between Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock with his own special twist. Coach Rose said, "Agustin's an athletic big man who can really get up and down the floor," which reminds me of Brandon Davies who runs the floor rather well. He is also supposed to be rather crafty around the basket, but more of a face up post player like Noah was, particularly his junior year. He has range like Noah, but Ambrosino may be a bigger threat from the outside that Hartsock. Ambrosino shot 43.8 percent from the outside, 49.8 percent overall, and 77.8 percent from the free throw line. He averaged 9.6 points and 5.3 rebounds in playing less than half of each game. So given the chance it seems he can be very efficient. It still worries me that there really are not any other statistical categories I can excitedly mention regarding him.
Where will he fit in? Well, if Chris Collinsworth gets healthy (see below) it will come down to Ambrosino and Ian Harward to battle it out for some playing time, so there is a chance he will get hardly any. However, Brandon Davies, and especially Nate Austin have a tendency to get into foul trouble, and Collinsworth is no guarantee, and Harward will be coming off a redshirt year and has never played college ball, so Ambrosino needs to come ready to play. If he can work hard and possibly develop some back to the basket moves, he could become a key piece of the rotation down low. He is a necessary addition due to the lack of depth in the Cougar frontcourt, but it will be interesting to see what kind of playing time he gets and what he is able to do with it playing against bigger, better opponents.
Chris Collinsworth, F:
Chris Collinsworth is an interesting case. He used a medical redshirt in 2010-2011 after playing in nine games, averaging 16.3 minutes, 5.9 points, and 5.6 rebounds per game. In 2012-2013 he played just two games, totaling twelve minutes, two shots, and zero points before aggravating his injured knee and being sidelined the remainder of the season. It would seem logical that the NCAA grant him another redshirt year, making him a sophomore entering the 2012-2013 season, so let's hope that happens. But just so Raul Delgado doesn't stand alone as the only Cougar junior, let's look at Chris Collinsworth's game in this post.
Collinsworth's freshman year provides a couple of insights into his talents as a player, but we certainly cannot judge his offensive productivity based on those statistics. As a freshman he played 15.9 minutes per game (2.6 shy of Jimmer Fredette's freshman minutes per game that same season) and averaged 3.2 points per game. His shooting percentages were incredibly low (37.5 FG, 18.2 3FG, 43.1 FT) but perhaps we can attribute that to freshman jitters. I would not expect his three point shooting to be much higher, but in his medical redshirt year he did shoot 41 percent from the floor and 74.1 percent from the free throw line, though he was just 1 of 8 from three (12.5 percent.) So he has displayed the ability to put the ball in the basket, but it would seem that his strength lies in being aggressive, which is a nice reflection of his ability to fight through injury starting in his youth and going through high school and the past two college seasons. Like I said, he averaged 5.6 rebounds in the nine games of his medical redshirt year, and 4.8 rebounds per game his freshman year.
First and foremost, Collinsworth needs to get healthy and I wish him the best in that effort. It has to be incredibly frustrating for him to sit on the sideline game after game, and I hope he can get back on the floor this upcoming season. If he can do that, he will add much needed depth in the post for the Cougars, and will see valuable playing time and make some important contributions on the glass and hopefully put some points on the board.
***************************
UPDATE
According to Dick Harmon of Deseret News, Chris Collinsworth was just cleared for daily weight-bearing workouts. That is a nice step in the rehabilitation process for him and I wish him continued luck.
Also, if anyone has an additional information on Raul Delgado or Agustin Ambrosino (or any players for that matter) or a highlight video of him, please let me know.
Monday, April 9, 2012
BYU Basketball: A Look at the 2012-2013 Seniors
As you've already seen, I am a pretty optimistic guy, particularly when it comes to BYU sports. This is going to be an optimistic look ahead at the 2012-2013 Cougar basketball team. I already made it clear that I believe this team has the ability to do great things this upcoming year in my last post, but in this series of posts I will take a slightly more in depth look at each individual player and the team as a whole, hopefully providing a little perspective as to why I believe this team has an incredible wealth of talent, but also still has work to do here in the off-season.
I'll start with the seniors and work my way down.
Brandon Davies, F:
Last season Davies started a little slow and inconsistent. At times he would flash brilliance and potential (e.g. versus BYU-Hawaii and Baylor) and other times he would disappear (e.g. two point performances against Longwood and Buffalo.) Perhaps we can chalk that up to the nerves of coming back to the team after a suspension the previous year. The weight of that and it's potentially devastating results could have easily taken it's toll on him.
To his everlasting credit, Davies worked hard and refused to back down and became one of the premier players in the West Coast Conference. As soon as conference play hit he was a force to be reckoned with and very few defenders could slow down. He scored in double figures in all but one conference game. To illustrate how important he became to this team's success, the game he scored only six points the Cougars needed a Matt Carlino floater with 18 seconds remaining to win the game against San Francisco. Davies is a key piece to this team.
This upcoming season Davies must start the season on fire. The Cougars will be without the post presence of Noah Hartsock, who held this year's team together before Davies found himself again. He has the ability to dominate both sides of the ball and the glass. He had nine double-doubles in 2011-2012, and I would expect that number to increase significantly. He'll be a daily double-double threat and may even record a triple-double or two with his ability to get steals (season high of 8) and kick it out the open man or cutter (season high of 6 assists.)
Davies has clearly worked hard to develop his post moves and his touch on the glass is often unbelievably delicate for a man who likes to throw down like he's the Incredible Hulk. If he can work on his mid-range game, and even develop his ability to step out behind the arc (he did nail a three in a tight game against San Diego in the WCC tourney) he will become a star and a potential draft pick in next year's draft. It will also help if he can improve staying out of foul trouble early in games. The Cougars will need consistency out of him if they want to do some damage in Conference and possibly even in the NCAA tournament next year.
Brock Zylstra, G/F:
Zylstra is a bit of a wildcard on this BYU team. This past year he displayed his natural talent as a pure shooter, particularly in his memorable 8-8 (6-6 from three) game against San Francisco. He was a much improved on ball defender from a season before, although that may be an unfair judgement as he averaged just five minutes per game his freshman and sophomore years. This year he showed an ability at times to get behind a defense and out in transition for easy baskets (who can forget the image of him celebrating after his game clinching lay-up - with the foul - in the historic comeback against Iona?)
His consistency was an issue (along with the rest of the perimeter players) at times, but he was second on the team in three point shooting at 37.6 percent (trailing only Craig Cusick at 37.9 percent.) It is worth noting that this was the worst three point shooting team in the Dave Rose era, but it is still a credit to Zylstra for being among the best shooters on this team. I am not sure what Coach Rose plans to do with him this next year, but he showed incredible versatility in his game. He started the season as a point guard, and on occasion due to injuries and foul trouble was asked to play anything from point to power forward. I project him starting at the small forward spot this next year.
If this is the case he will need to learn to get physical when the Cougars run man-to-man on the defensive end, as some teams have monsters at the small forward position. I believe he is fully capable though, and if he improves his defense even more and get more aggressive, he can even cause some problems for teams because of his versatility.
Look for Zylstra to develop his outside consistency and his ability to drive to the basket and even work without the ball to get some open looks. Like I said, I feel like Zylstra is a bit of a wildcard, mostly because I really don't know Coach Rose's plan with him, but he has the ability to be a difference maker for this team.
Craig Cusick, G:
Here is what I have to say about Cusick this past season: Thank goodness he was there to save the day. On multiple occasions the game seemed to get a little out of control on the court and Craig Cusick was asked to come into the game and calm things down. He was a junior. He walked on to this Cougar squad. He saw his first collegiate action this year. And none of these things seemed to phase him. He never looked rattled. I was a little nervous going into the Utah game. Cusick played the majority of the available point guard minutes (28.) It was his old team, a team that did not give him the same chance BYU did. I will be forever grateful they didn't because he was clutch against his old team. 6 assists and 10 points, including two big threes. He made an incredible difference in that win, and in many more throughout the year.
My favorite story of the year was the game against Iona. Obviously, this was one for the ages: biggest comeback win in NCAA tournament history (25 points) and a third straight year with a tournament win for the BYU program. Matt Carlino looked rattled by the pace of the game, which is understandable as they were one of only a handful of teams who played at a pace comparable to the Cougars. Down by as many as 25, Cusick was asked to use his calming presence once again and lead this team to victory. Iona seemed lost when Cusick was able to slow the game down. It almost seemed as though they had forgotten to include him in the scouting report. "What are we supposed to do when BYU slows the game down, Coach? I didn't know they had a guy who could do that!" Cusick scored zero points, but that wasn't what he needed to do. What he needed to do was dish out 8 assists, collect 5 boards, and only turn the ball over once against a speedy team that was 14th in the country in turnover margin. And that is exactly what he did.
The story to me however, was Cusick's leadership in that game. Check out this tweet from Jason Franchuk:
Stephen Rogers, G/F:
I have wondered at times if the Cougars' three point shooting woes would have ever occurred if Stephen Rogers had been able to stay healthy. He was coming off the bench and shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from three point range prior to his being sidelined with a knee injury after ten games. When he returned he played sparingly, never really getting into the flow of the game and with a knee that was still clearly bothering him. He went from averaging 9.9 points through the first ten games, to scoring only 9 total points in the remaining 8 games he saw the floor. His injury coincided with the debut of Matt Carlino, who started red hot, but once he cooled, the entire team saw a major drop in perimeter productivity. If Rogers can get healthy and stay healthy, he can battle Zylstra for the starting spot at small forward.
He presents an intriguing option for Coach Rose, as he is essentially a shooting guard trapped in a 6-8 frame. His length can cause some problems for teams particularly when Rose runs a zone defense. He is not a quick defender, but his length makes up for that and he does reasonably well at keeping ball handlers in front of him and disrupting the passing lanes. This is not to say he is a perfect defender; he could certainly use work in man-to-man sets, lowering his center of gravity to stay in front of the smaller, quicker players he is frequently asked to defend.
His length and ability to stretch a defense usually draws some fouls, and he was nearly automatic from the free throw line his sophomore year. If he can get back to that form he can be a real problem for defenders and pick up some easy points. It would also be interesting to see him develop some post moves and create a mismatch with a smaller defender on occasion.
It appeared to me that between his sophomore and junior years he worked to make sure his shooting hand was in position before he went up to shoot, rather than rotating it into position while he was in the air like he did as a sophomore. Correcting something like that which has been ingrained in his muscle memory for years shows a great work ethic and willingness to change and improve, and if he can use that same work ethic to address some other minor issues in the off-season (as well as rehab his knee) he can do some real damage in whatever role he is asked to take on in the coming year, be it coming off the bench or working his way into the starting lineup.
If he can get healthy he presents a scoring threat off the bench at either the shooting guard or small forward positions, and if he improves and expands his skill set he can even challenge Zylstra for the starting small forward role.
I'll start with the seniors and work my way down.
Brandon Davies, F:
Last season Davies started a little slow and inconsistent. At times he would flash brilliance and potential (e.g. versus BYU-Hawaii and Baylor) and other times he would disappear (e.g. two point performances against Longwood and Buffalo.) Perhaps we can chalk that up to the nerves of coming back to the team after a suspension the previous year. The weight of that and it's potentially devastating results could have easily taken it's toll on him.
To his everlasting credit, Davies worked hard and refused to back down and became one of the premier players in the West Coast Conference. As soon as conference play hit he was a force to be reckoned with and very few defenders could slow down. He scored in double figures in all but one conference game. To illustrate how important he became to this team's success, the game he scored only six points the Cougars needed a Matt Carlino floater with 18 seconds remaining to win the game against San Francisco. Davies is a key piece to this team.
This upcoming season Davies must start the season on fire. The Cougars will be without the post presence of Noah Hartsock, who held this year's team together before Davies found himself again. He has the ability to dominate both sides of the ball and the glass. He had nine double-doubles in 2011-2012, and I would expect that number to increase significantly. He'll be a daily double-double threat and may even record a triple-double or two with his ability to get steals (season high of 8) and kick it out the open man or cutter (season high of 6 assists.)
Davies has clearly worked hard to develop his post moves and his touch on the glass is often unbelievably delicate for a man who likes to throw down like he's the Incredible Hulk. If he can work on his mid-range game, and even develop his ability to step out behind the arc (he did nail a three in a tight game against San Diego in the WCC tourney) he will become a star and a potential draft pick in next year's draft. It will also help if he can improve staying out of foul trouble early in games. The Cougars will need consistency out of him if they want to do some damage in Conference and possibly even in the NCAA tournament next year.
Brock Zylstra, G/F:
Zylstra is a bit of a wildcard on this BYU team. This past year he displayed his natural talent as a pure shooter, particularly in his memorable 8-8 (6-6 from three) game against San Francisco. He was a much improved on ball defender from a season before, although that may be an unfair judgement as he averaged just five minutes per game his freshman and sophomore years. This year he showed an ability at times to get behind a defense and out in transition for easy baskets (who can forget the image of him celebrating after his game clinching lay-up - with the foul - in the historic comeback against Iona?)
His consistency was an issue (along with the rest of the perimeter players) at times, but he was second on the team in three point shooting at 37.6 percent (trailing only Craig Cusick at 37.9 percent.) It is worth noting that this was the worst three point shooting team in the Dave Rose era, but it is still a credit to Zylstra for being among the best shooters on this team. I am not sure what Coach Rose plans to do with him this next year, but he showed incredible versatility in his game. He started the season as a point guard, and on occasion due to injuries and foul trouble was asked to play anything from point to power forward. I project him starting at the small forward spot this next year.
If this is the case he will need to learn to get physical when the Cougars run man-to-man on the defensive end, as some teams have monsters at the small forward position. I believe he is fully capable though, and if he improves his defense even more and get more aggressive, he can even cause some problems for teams because of his versatility.
Look for Zylstra to develop his outside consistency and his ability to drive to the basket and even work without the ball to get some open looks. Like I said, I feel like Zylstra is a bit of a wildcard, mostly because I really don't know Coach Rose's plan with him, but he has the ability to be a difference maker for this team.
Craig Cusick, G:
Here is what I have to say about Cusick this past season: Thank goodness he was there to save the day. On multiple occasions the game seemed to get a little out of control on the court and Craig Cusick was asked to come into the game and calm things down. He was a junior. He walked on to this Cougar squad. He saw his first collegiate action this year. And none of these things seemed to phase him. He never looked rattled. I was a little nervous going into the Utah game. Cusick played the majority of the available point guard minutes (28.) It was his old team, a team that did not give him the same chance BYU did. I will be forever grateful they didn't because he was clutch against his old team. 6 assists and 10 points, including two big threes. He made an incredible difference in that win, and in many more throughout the year.
My favorite story of the year was the game against Iona. Obviously, this was one for the ages: biggest comeback win in NCAA tournament history (25 points) and a third straight year with a tournament win for the BYU program. Matt Carlino looked rattled by the pace of the game, which is understandable as they were one of only a handful of teams who played at a pace comparable to the Cougars. Down by as many as 25, Cusick was asked to use his calming presence once again and lead this team to victory. Iona seemed lost when Cusick was able to slow the game down. It almost seemed as though they had forgotten to include him in the scouting report. "What are we supposed to do when BYU slows the game down, Coach? I didn't know they had a guy who could do that!" Cusick scored zero points, but that wasn't what he needed to do. What he needed to do was dish out 8 assists, collect 5 boards, and only turn the ball over once against a speedy team that was 14th in the country in turnover margin. And that is exactly what he did.
The story to me however, was Cusick's leadership in that game. Check out this tweet from Jason Franchuk:
Why that failed to become a popular story line is something I cannot figure out. I happened to overhear Craig Cusick talking to a friend in line today at the Blue Line Deli on campus, and he said his teammates mentioned him the second most number of times in their season ending interviews with Coach Rose as leader of this team. I would imagine Noah Hartsock was first, but it is incredible that a junior walk-on rose to such a height that he was looked to as a clear leader of this team. It would lead me to believe that Cusick will be a team captain this upcoming season, and rightfully so. He is also well deserving of the scholarship that is opening up with Nick Martineau's scholarship not being renewed, and he will likely be the recipient of it for his senior year.
I am a little concerned about his playing time, however. The 2012-2013 squad looks to be even deeper in the back court than it was this past season. Matt Carlino has star potential written all over him, Anson Winder is a better defender, Tyler Haws is returning and is likely to be a starter and big time offensive threat, and Raul Delgado transferring from Community College will also diminish Cusick's playing time if he lives up to his hype. I am not one to say that Cusick should get playing time over any of these guys, but there is certainly a possibility he will be called on to be a stabilizing presence in similar situations this next season.
Assuming he does see some playing time in pivotal moments this next year, he simply needs to do more of the same. He is a true point guard, straying from the scoring point guard trend in basketball today, looking to pass first and play solid, fundamental defense. He comes up with clutch steals, and when I say Anson Winder is a better defender, it is simply a compliment to Winder, not a knock on Cusick. Cusick does have great defensive ability and does a great job of slowing down some athletic opponents. Perhaps most importantly, he takes care of the ball. His 3-1 assist to turnover ratio is simply astounding. He led the team in three point shooting (37.9 percent) and was a blistering 90 percent in the first five conference games. He didn't need to score last year, but if he can add the ability to drive and improve his mid-range game, he may get more minutes than Winder or Delgado this upcoming season.
Stephen Rogers, G/F:
I have wondered at times if the Cougars' three point shooting woes would have ever occurred if Stephen Rogers had been able to stay healthy. He was coming off the bench and shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from three point range prior to his being sidelined with a knee injury after ten games. When he returned he played sparingly, never really getting into the flow of the game and with a knee that was still clearly bothering him. He went from averaging 9.9 points through the first ten games, to scoring only 9 total points in the remaining 8 games he saw the floor. His injury coincided with the debut of Matt Carlino, who started red hot, but once he cooled, the entire team saw a major drop in perimeter productivity. If Rogers can get healthy and stay healthy, he can battle Zylstra for the starting spot at small forward.
He presents an intriguing option for Coach Rose, as he is essentially a shooting guard trapped in a 6-8 frame. His length can cause some problems for teams particularly when Rose runs a zone defense. He is not a quick defender, but his length makes up for that and he does reasonably well at keeping ball handlers in front of him and disrupting the passing lanes. This is not to say he is a perfect defender; he could certainly use work in man-to-man sets, lowering his center of gravity to stay in front of the smaller, quicker players he is frequently asked to defend.
His length and ability to stretch a defense usually draws some fouls, and he was nearly automatic from the free throw line his sophomore year. If he can get back to that form he can be a real problem for defenders and pick up some easy points. It would also be interesting to see him develop some post moves and create a mismatch with a smaller defender on occasion.
It appeared to me that between his sophomore and junior years he worked to make sure his shooting hand was in position before he went up to shoot, rather than rotating it into position while he was in the air like he did as a sophomore. Correcting something like that which has been ingrained in his muscle memory for years shows a great work ethic and willingness to change and improve, and if he can use that same work ethic to address some other minor issues in the off-season (as well as rehab his knee) he can do some real damage in whatever role he is asked to take on in the coming year, be it coming off the bench or working his way into the starting lineup.
If he can get healthy he presents a scoring threat off the bench at either the shooting guard or small forward positions, and if he improves and expands his skill set he can even challenge Zylstra for the starting small forward role.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Optimistic Prediction: A Final Four Future for BYU
My bold prediction on the future of BYU basketball: In one of Matt Carlino's remaining three years, BYU will earn its first trip to the Final Four in school history.
Allow me to explain.
First, I am quite the optimist. Without the Brandon Davies suspension two seasons ago, I believe BYU may well be national champions. Without the injury problems this past season, BYU my prediction of a second consecutive trip to the Sweet Sixteen may have been a reality. And so, I am going to take Journey's advice: "Don't Stop Believin'" in Cougar basketball. At least I think that's what they said.
Second, look at the recruiting pipeline the Cougars have in the upcoming years! BYU has a new Emery and a new Ainge destined for Provo. (Though it should be noted that Cooper Ainge has not been highly recruited and will be coming in as a preferred walk on.) There will be two Haws boys, two Collinsworth's, and another Hartsock (who may not be here until Carlino is gone, but I'm still excited.) The Washington state high school player of the year of 2011-2012 is leaving on a mission but will be back for the 2014-2015 season. And these are only the players with family connections to the Cougar basketball program. BYU will also be acquiring the services of JuCo standout Raul Delgado, who should help rid the team of those three point shooting woes that may have contributed to BYU's late season downfall.
Third, look at who is returning. Brandon Davies, Brock Zylstra, Stephen Rogers, and Craig Cusick will all be seniors. Two of those will likely start, and two will likely be asked to play major roles coming off the bench, though Cusick's playing time may diminish significantly with Tyler Haws returning from a mission and some potential development from Anson Winder and Matt Carlino. Tyler Haws will quite likely step off the plane when he returns from the Philippines in a week and hit the hardwood with intensity preparing to be a probable starter and scoring force for this next year's team. Anson Winder, Matt Carlino, and Nate Austin were all freshman this past year and they showed tremendous potential to become stars.
With the balance of seniority, youth, incredible depth, and wealth of talent and potential, I would guess now that if my prediction is to come true, it will likely come in this upcoming season when Brandon Davies stands poised to become a star, Matt Carlino is itching to show his true potential, and Tyler Haws may well just come home and take over this team. Even if it doesn't occur this next season, I'm sticking with it. It's going to happen.
Regardless of when it happens, in Matt Carlino's time at Brigham Young University this team is Final Four bound. Will Matt Carlino be the star that carries them there? Perhaps. It seems more likely that it will happen when a team of stars appears on the court, which looks like a real possibility in the coming years.
And let's not forget the most important reason of all: Coach Dave Rose. He is one of the best coaches in college basketball and is showing a real talent for recruiting. If this keeps up there is a real possibility he will bring basketball glory to Provo.
Let's take this one step further shall we? If Jabari Parker miraculously decides to commit to BYU, I'm predicting a "National Champions" banner will be hanging from the rafters of the Marriott Center. How's that for optimism?
Allow me to explain.
First, I am quite the optimist. Without the Brandon Davies suspension two seasons ago, I believe BYU may well be national champions. Without the injury problems this past season, BYU my prediction of a second consecutive trip to the Sweet Sixteen may have been a reality. And so, I am going to take Journey's advice: "Don't Stop Believin'" in Cougar basketball. At least I think that's what they said.
Second, look at the recruiting pipeline the Cougars have in the upcoming years! BYU has a new Emery and a new Ainge destined for Provo. (Though it should be noted that Cooper Ainge has not been highly recruited and will be coming in as a preferred walk on.) There will be two Haws boys, two Collinsworth's, and another Hartsock (who may not be here until Carlino is gone, but I'm still excited.) The Washington state high school player of the year of 2011-2012 is leaving on a mission but will be back for the 2014-2015 season. And these are only the players with family connections to the Cougar basketball program. BYU will also be acquiring the services of JuCo standout Raul Delgado, who should help rid the team of those three point shooting woes that may have contributed to BYU's late season downfall.
Third, look at who is returning. Brandon Davies, Brock Zylstra, Stephen Rogers, and Craig Cusick will all be seniors. Two of those will likely start, and two will likely be asked to play major roles coming off the bench, though Cusick's playing time may diminish significantly with Tyler Haws returning from a mission and some potential development from Anson Winder and Matt Carlino. Tyler Haws will quite likely step off the plane when he returns from the Philippines in a week and hit the hardwood with intensity preparing to be a probable starter and scoring force for this next year's team. Anson Winder, Matt Carlino, and Nate Austin were all freshman this past year and they showed tremendous potential to become stars.
With the balance of seniority, youth, incredible depth, and wealth of talent and potential, I would guess now that if my prediction is to come true, it will likely come in this upcoming season when Brandon Davies stands poised to become a star, Matt Carlino is itching to show his true potential, and Tyler Haws may well just come home and take over this team. Even if it doesn't occur this next season, I'm sticking with it. It's going to happen.
Regardless of when it happens, in Matt Carlino's time at Brigham Young University this team is Final Four bound. Will Matt Carlino be the star that carries them there? Perhaps. It seems more likely that it will happen when a team of stars appears on the court, which looks like a real possibility in the coming years.
And let's not forget the most important reason of all: Coach Dave Rose. He is one of the best coaches in college basketball and is showing a real talent for recruiting. If this keeps up there is a real possibility he will bring basketball glory to Provo.
Let's take this one step further shall we? If Jabari Parker miraculously decides to commit to BYU, I'm predicting a "National Champions" banner will be hanging from the rafters of the Marriott Center. How's that for optimism?
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Colorado Rockies vs. Opponent: 2 vs. 9
I love the Colorado Rockies. They are my team and they always will be. But wouldn't it be nice if I could enter a season believing they had a chance to make the playoffs, let alone win the World Series? Since that memorable and miraculous run to the Series in 2007 (and devastating loss to the Red Sox), the Rockies have returned to the playoff once, getting sent home by the Phillies in the first round.
While Cubs fans may think this is an incredible track record, I want more. I understand the Rockies have only been around since 1993 and that these things take time. But allow me to offer up a few concerns about Colorado Rockies baseball.
The ESPN 500 was released over the past couple of weeks, revealing a panel of ESPN experts' top 500 rated players in Major League Baseball for the upcoming season. Troy Tulowitzki was ranked at eight, and Carlos Gomez was ranked at 46. Do you know what the next highest rated player was? Mark Cuddyer at 150. Only the Padres, Pirates, Astros, Mets, Mariners, A's (and we've all seen Moneyball, so that explains them), Twins, and White Sox (who had a starter in Adam Dunn bat .159 last year) had less players in the top 150 than Colorado. Even the Oriole's, who recently lost to a community college baseball team, reached three players in the ESPN 500 before Colorado did.
I love that Colorado plays fundamentally solid, team baseball. However, they need a supporting cast around Tulo and CarGo, and that starts with the pitching staff. There are simply too many question marks on the mound for the Rockies to feel any amount of confidence as Friday's season opener approaches. Will Jeremy Guthrie be the ace the Rox believe him to be? Will Jamie Moyer's 80 mph fastball be countered by his craftiness? Will Jhoulys Chacin improve on the potential he showed us last year? Can the bullpen buckle down when things get tight? Only time will tell, and all of these things are completely feasible, though it seems improbably that the pitching staff will turn into one the Phillies or the Giants will envy any time soon.
Colorado cannot afford to take the field playing 2 versus 9 baseball and expect to win. Now that is a little extreme, but in a lineup where not many people are familiar with the names past Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, and an aging Todd Helton, it sometimes feels like the reality.
While Cubs fans may think this is an incredible track record, I want more. I understand the Rockies have only been around since 1993 and that these things take time. But allow me to offer up a few concerns about Colorado Rockies baseball.
The ESPN 500 was released over the past couple of weeks, revealing a panel of ESPN experts' top 500 rated players in Major League Baseball for the upcoming season. Troy Tulowitzki was ranked at eight, and Carlos Gomez was ranked at 46. Do you know what the next highest rated player was? Mark Cuddyer at 150. Only the Padres, Pirates, Astros, Mets, Mariners, A's (and we've all seen Moneyball, so that explains them), Twins, and White Sox (who had a starter in Adam Dunn bat .159 last year) had less players in the top 150 than Colorado. Even the Oriole's, who recently lost to a community college baseball team, reached three players in the ESPN 500 before Colorado did.
I love that Colorado plays fundamentally solid, team baseball. However, they need a supporting cast around Tulo and CarGo, and that starts with the pitching staff. There are simply too many question marks on the mound for the Rockies to feel any amount of confidence as Friday's season opener approaches. Will Jeremy Guthrie be the ace the Rox believe him to be? Will Jamie Moyer's 80 mph fastball be countered by his craftiness? Will Jhoulys Chacin improve on the potential he showed us last year? Can the bullpen buckle down when things get tight? Only time will tell, and all of these things are completely feasible, though it seems improbably that the pitching staff will turn into one the Phillies or the Giants will envy any time soon.
Colorado cannot afford to take the field playing 2 versus 9 baseball and expect to win. Now that is a little extreme, but in a lineup where not many people are familiar with the names past Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, and an aging Todd Helton, it sometimes feels like the reality.
BYU Basketball: A Glance Behind at 2011-2012
Jimmer Fredette. Jackson Emery. Two of the best guards in school history. One BYU's most prolific scorer of all time; the other a master thief with school records in steals. Jimmer Fredette was the consensus national player of the year in 2011. Cougar Nation knew losing him would create a difficult hole in the roster to fill. Many may not have realized, however, that losing Jackson Emery, a consistent, do-everything work horse, would have almost an equal impact on BYU's rebuilding season. Few appreciated how his constant effort and consistency made up for everyone else's mistakes until he was gone.
Most predicted the 2011-2012 to be a struggle for BYU basketball due to losing Jimmer and Jackson and moving into the West Coast Conference. I actually predicted a conference title and a return to the Sweet Sixteen. I was wrong, but let's consider for a moment Coach Dave Rose's accomplishment in leading this squad in this "rebuilding" year.
Third in the WCC. About where most people expected the Cougars to finish. My over-optimistic prediction did not expect Saint Mary's to be quite so dangerous after losing Mickey McConnell. BYU did come within one game of Gonzaga for second place, and with a healthy Noah Hartsock in the second meeting between the two teams who knows how that would have played out.
26 wins. For the sixth season in a row the Cougars won 25 or more games. And this after losing the best back court in school history and having to deal with injuries to Chris Collinsworth, Stephen Rogers, and Noah Hartsock. Not to mention a mid-season adjustment when Matt Carlino became eligible and a myriad of young players on the squad. What a phenomenal coaching job by Coach Rose. And it all culminated in a sixth straight NCAA tournament appearance, winning a game there for the third straight year.
The steady play of Noah Hartsock saved this season, as did Brandon Davies' dominance in the paint through conference play. Inconsistencies on the perimeter potentially cost the Cougars a few games, but overall this was certainly a season to be proud of. Especially for a rebuilding year.
A special thanks to Noah Hartsock and Charles Abouo for their incredible careers at BYU. They will certainly be missed.
Most predicted the 2011-2012 to be a struggle for BYU basketball due to losing Jimmer and Jackson and moving into the West Coast Conference. I actually predicted a conference title and a return to the Sweet Sixteen. I was wrong, but let's consider for a moment Coach Dave Rose's accomplishment in leading this squad in this "rebuilding" year.
Third in the WCC. About where most people expected the Cougars to finish. My over-optimistic prediction did not expect Saint Mary's to be quite so dangerous after losing Mickey McConnell. BYU did come within one game of Gonzaga for second place, and with a healthy Noah Hartsock in the second meeting between the two teams who knows how that would have played out.
26 wins. For the sixth season in a row the Cougars won 25 or more games. And this after losing the best back court in school history and having to deal with injuries to Chris Collinsworth, Stephen Rogers, and Noah Hartsock. Not to mention a mid-season adjustment when Matt Carlino became eligible and a myriad of young players on the squad. What a phenomenal coaching job by Coach Rose. And it all culminated in a sixth straight NCAA tournament appearance, winning a game there for the third straight year.
The steady play of Noah Hartsock saved this season, as did Brandon Davies' dominance in the paint through conference play. Inconsistencies on the perimeter potentially cost the Cougars a few games, but overall this was certainly a season to be proud of. Especially for a rebuilding year.
A special thanks to Noah Hartsock and Charles Abouo for their incredible careers at BYU. They will certainly be missed.
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