What's Wrong with BYU Basketball? Part 1

At 9-4, BYU is looking at an awfully mediocre season. Aside from the Utah game, every game has been decided by 10 points or more this year. They've beaten the soft part of their schedule, and been hammered in all of the meaningful meaningful games thus far. Outside of Brandon Davies and Tyler Haws, this team has nowhere to turn for a consistent scoring option. If the Cougars expect to be competitive in conference play this year, they need to find another go to guy, and they need to find him fast. Some players are starting to develop a little bit and are showing flashes of potential, but we have yet to see any sort of consistency from players other than Davies and Haws. Consequently, Dave Rose has had trouble finding a regular starting lineup. In the latest game against Northern Arizona University he returned to his season opening lineup, and I would expect that to remain the same if player production stays where it is.

In this three part series I will first look at the current starting lineup, then at the remaining players, and then give some general thoughts and impressions on the state of the BYU basketball team this year, including what they need to do in order to see another NCAA tournament and not be relegated to the NIT.

Brandon Davies - 6'9" F, Senior

2011-12 season: 28.6 minutes, 15.2 points, 51.6% FG, 7.7 Reb., 2.1 Ast., 1.5 Steals
2012-13 season: 28.4 minutes, 20.3 points, 56.5% FG, 8.2 Reb., 2.5 Ast., 1.5 Steals

Brandon Davies felt dominant enough against NAU to
pay tribute to Karl Malone with this powerful dunk.

Davies has become a real force in the paint. He is the Cougars' obvious go-to guy, and he has clearly improved nearly every aspect of his game. He is quick and powerful in the paint, which makes him a tough guy to stop, and throughout his career he has slowly increased his range and now has confidence to pull the trigger from beyond the arc, which gives defenders headaches at times. His development as a shooter has allowed for some memorable plays such as a mid-range pump fake leading to a thundering dunk against Utah. Teams have tried to defend him by pushing him off the block so he catches the ball in a bad position on the floor, but he has stayed very effective as a shooter and driver. His post dominance is drawing double and triple teams, which has helped him increase his assist number, however I would still like to see him kick the ball back out more. At times he sets his sights on the basket and misses some open guys as he tries to force the issue against three defenders.

Tyler Haws - 6'5" G, Sophomore

2009-10 season: 26.4 minutes, 11.3 points, 49.8% FG, 36.8% 3FG, 4.2 Reb., 1.5 Ast., .7 Steals
2012-13 season: 32.4 minutes, 19.3 points, 46.6% FG, 35.6% 3FG, 5.3 Reb., 2.8 Ast., 1.4 Steals

The much anticipated return of Tyler Haws has not disappointed.

Haws started the season absolutely on fire, scoring 20 or more points in the first six games. He has slowed slightly since then, scoring over 20 only once in the ensuing seven games, and watching his field goal percentage go from 50% in the first six to 42.7% in the next seven. Perhaps teams didn't pay much attention while scouting the recently returned missionary until after the first few games, but it seems that opposing teams have ratcheted up the pressure on Haws. He started to force some shots that weren't there and at times try to do a bit to much. But overall his return to the hardwood after two years in the Philippines has been nothing short of impressive. It's not often we see a returned missionary have this much success in his first year back. He has only missed three free throws on the year while shooting at a 95.2% rate, and he has done well in most games to find a way to get to the free throw line. I expect Haws to finish the season with similar averages to what he currently has, and perhaps raise his field goal percentage slightly as he forces less shots and feeds the monster inside. I was on my own mission during his freshman year, so this is my first time seeing him play, and I have been very impressed with how scrappy he is. A lot of scorers and shooters like Haws don't get involved with the dirty work, but it is a frequent sight to see Haws diving on the floor for a loose ball, getting tangled up with his opponents for a rebound, and hustling for the steal on defense. He is a remarkable player with a bright future for the Cougars, and BYU certainly needs him to be a star alongside Davies this year.

Matt Carlino - 6'2" G, Sophomore

2011-12 season: 27.7 minutes, 12.2 points, 40.1% FG, 33.1% 3FG, 3.0 Reb., 4.6 Ast., 1.4 Steals
2012-13 season: 23.6 minutes, 7.1 points, 38.6% FG, 22.5% 3FG, 2.8 Reb., 4.1 Ast., 1.5 Steals

Carlino has been perhaps the most criticized players on this roster. After beginning his freshman campaign on an absolute tear, he slowed significantly toward the end of the season and showed a tendency toward making bad decisions and turning the ball over. He was clearly a shoot-first point guard, but with excellent court vision. This season he has been asked to focus on capitalizing on that court vision. I have always been impressed with how Carlino sees the court. As soon as he receives the ball his eyes are up and he is surveying the floor, which often leads to a long pass and a Brandon Davies dunk on the other end. His shooting and decision making struggles lost him his starting spot for a couple of games, until he was BYU's saving grace against Utah with a 19 point performace and five three pointers, including two on back to back possessions that equalized the game and allowed the Cougars to seize momentum and get the win.

In a bit of a sophomore slump, expect to see Carlino turn around
and for him to become a consistent scoring option for BYU.

While all of his offensive numbers have lowered from last season, his assist-to-turnover ratio has gone from 1.53 last year, to 1.86 this year. While not a significant jump, it is a definite and noticeable improvement. He is far more patient this season, and better with his shot selection. In 2011-12 he average 11 shots per game. That number has decreased to 7.8 shots per game as he has focused on being a distributor. He is far from perfect, but Carlino has shown great improvement in his decision making. He has also improved significantly on the defensive end of the floor where his footwork is better and quicker and he is able to stay with his man much better than last year. His shooting numbers may be low, and I believe it is probably a mental problem as he is trying to become a different type of player than he has ever been, but I would expect that over the course of the season those numbers will increase, and he could become a third, consistent scoring option for the Cougars.

Brock Zylstra - 6'6" G/F, Senior

2011-12 season: 28.2 minutes, 8.3 points, 45.5% FG, 37.6% 3FG, 4.3 Reb., 1.9 Ast., 1.2 Steals
2012-13 season: 23.2 minutes, 6.8 points, 40.3% FG, 34.9% 3FG, 3.5 Reb., 1.8 Ast., 1.1 Steals

Zylstra needs to become more
consistent for BYU to succeed.

I'm not really sure what to make of Brock Zylstra at this point. He started the season well, averaging 9.25 points per game through the first eight games, but he saw his playing time drop off tremendously after a 21 minute, zero point, 0-6 performance against Utah. He really needs to be a consistent threat in order for this team to succeed. I believe that he does not need to average double digits in points, but he does need to become significantly more effective and consistent. He cannot continue to be a roller coaster ride if this team is going to see success. And while he has regained his starting job for the time being, he needs to start hitting his shots if he expects to keep it as players like Raul Delgado are gaining confidence and making a significantly bigger impact than he is in recent games. Along with many other players on the team, Brock's best game was against Cal-State Northridge where he tallied 14 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, and two steals. He doesn't need to have games like that every night, but I would like to see between 8-12 points, 4-7 rebounds, 3-5 assists, and 1-2 steals on a consistent basis. If we see that kind of production out of Zylstra the remainder of the season, the Cougars might pull off some big wins in conference play.

Josh Sharp - 6'7" F, Sophomore

2011-12 season: 7.0 minutes, 1.2 points, 39.1% FG, 1.4 Reb., .4 Ast., .1 Steals
2012-13 season: 20.2 minutes, 4.5 points, 53.2% FG, 4.5 Reb., .4 Ast., .3 Steals

Josh Sharp can catch defenders sleeping and make some big plays.

Easily BYU's most improved player from last year, Josh Sharp is a respectable, right place, right time, scrappy role player. He isn't much of a shooter, but he finds himself in good positions to get a pass as he cuts backdoor to the basket for an easy layup. Defensively, despite his size, he is aggressive and fights hard for everything. I was honestly quite surprised to see Sharp in the starting lineup at the beginning of the year, but he has not disappointed me as he avoids costly mistakes and he works hard to fulfill his assignments. His primary purpose on the floor is to be an aggressive defender and secure rebounds and loose balls, and he has done that effectively for the Cougars. If he can add a mid-range jumper to his game that would help BYU, but he has clearly been effective as he has hit 53.2 percent of his shots this year. He is very good at recognizing openings when Davies is being double teamed and getting himself into position for open looks, and overall he has done well at finishing at the basket. He will likely never be a star for this team, but this year he will make a significant impact as a hustle player with the potential to add a more complete offensive game later. I mean, he's built almost exactly like Lee Cummard, so that shows some promise, right?