I've been told that no rookie third baseman has ever won a Gold Glove. But I don't really care. Nolan Arenado deserves it.
I know, he's not a household name. Yet. And perhaps it will take more than a .267 batting average for him to get there. But fortunately for him the Gold Glove has nothing to do with offense. It's an award handed to the best defensive player at each position in each league. And a quick glance at the defensive statistics suggests that Arenado should get a long, hard look at being handed the award.
All it takes is a superficial study of the MLB and National League standings in any given defensive statistical category to realize that he is at or near the top in just about everything. The following standings include all third baseman who played more than 500 innings during the 2013 season. First up, the raw statistic of fielding percentage, a simple comparison of opportunities versus errors.
MLB Fielding Percentage Standings- Placido Polanco, MIA - .990
- Juan Uribe, LAD - .983
- Martin Prado, ARI - .978
- Nolan Arenado, COL - .973
- Manny Machado, BAL - .973
NL Fielding Percentage Standings
- Placido Polanco, MIA - .990
- Juan Uribe, LAD - .983
- Martin Prado, ARI - .978
- Nolan Arenado, COL - .973
- David Wright, NYM - .973
It is interesting that four of the top five fielding percentages are National Leaguers, and three of those are from the NL West. I don't really know why it's interesting, but it is.
More than anything I find it interesting that Arenado, ranks fourth in the big leagues in fielding percentage. In his first year in the league he placed himself in the top five of all third baseman. That is very respectable, but I admit that in and of itself that would not justify voting the rookie a Gold Glove. That's why we need advanced metrics; because fielding percentages don't evaluate plays like this:
Advanced metrics can tell us the value of a play like that. There are a great many statistics that are surfacing that can more powerfully explain the value of defense.
First, consider Ultimate Zone Rating, or UZR. It has to be one of the most complicated statistics out there, but the short version is that it is a measure of how many balls hit into a players zone turn into outs. For a more complete explanation of UZR, click here.
Notice not only where Nolan falls on the list, but the ridiculous gap after him, especially in the National League.
First, consider Ultimate Zone Rating, or UZR. It has to be one of the most complicated statistics out there, but the short version is that it is a measure of how many balls hit into a players zone turn into outs. For a more complete explanation of UZR, click here.
Notice not only where Nolan falls on the list, but the ridiculous gap after him, especially in the National League.
MLB UZR Standings
- Manny Machado, BAL - 31.2
- Juan Uribe, LAD - 24.0
- Nolan Arenado, COL - 20.7
- Evan Longoria, TB - 14.6
- Josh Donaldson, OAK - 9.9
NL UZR Standings
- Juan Uribe, LAD - 24.0
- Nolan Arenado, COL - 20.7
- Todd Frazier, CIN - 9.7
- Chase Headley, SD - 7.0
- David Wright, NYM - 3.7
Looking at these numbers alone, the NL third base Gold Glove award is a two man race between Juan Uribe and Nolan Arenado. Uribe's lead over Arenado in UZR is certainly not insignificant, but it sure seems that way when you consider the third highest NL UZR is 11 points below those two.
So Juan Uribe commits less errors per opportunity and turns more balls in his zone into outs than Arenado, and although they are both by slim margins, that means the award should go to Uribe, right? I don't think so. As I've mentioned fielding percentage is raw and insufficient, and baseball stat gurus tend to look at a three year average for UZR. So while I don't think I'll necessarily be offended and start throwing things if the award goes to the veteran in Los Angeles, I still think the rookie in Colorado might be the better defender at the hot corner.
It occurs to me that the purpose of playing baseball is to win games, and the way you win games is by scoring more runs than the other team. That's why these next two statistics seem more meaningful to me, and they make it seem like there are only two decent third baseman in all of baseball: Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado.
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) is far more intuitive than UZR and measures how many runs a player saves, or gives up if the number is negative, with his defense. As you might expect, Manny Machado leads the Majors, but look at what happens after that, especially in the National League:
MLB DRS Standings- Manny Machado, BAL - 35
- Nolan Arenado, COL - 30
- Juan Uribe, LAD - 15
- Evan Longoria, TB - 12
- Josh Donaldson, OAK - 12
NL DRS Standings
- Nolan Arenado, COL - 30
- Juan Uribe, LAD - 15
- Todd Frazier, CIN - 5
- Chase Headley, SD - 5
- David Wright, NYM - 5
Not only does Arenado lead the National League, he doubles up the second place Juan Uribe. If you ignore Machado and Arenado, 15 DRS would be a very respectable number, but behind those two all other third basemen look mediocre when it comes to keeping opponents from crossing the plate.
WAR (Wins Above Replacement) has become a widely used and respected sabermetric across baseball. Simply put, it is a measure of how many more wins a player gives his team over an average replacement player. Defensive Wins Above Replacement (dWAR) specifically shows how many wins a player's defense brings to his team above an average replacement player. The results here are equally as remarkable as the above mentioned DRS.
MLB dWAR Standings- Manny Machado, BAL - 4.4
- Nolan Arenado, COL - 3.6
- Josh Donaldson, OAK - 1.8
- Juan Uribe, LAD - 1.8
- Evan Longoria, TB - 1.7
NL dWAR Standings
- Nolan Arenado, COL - 3.6
- Juan Uribe, LAD - 1.8
- Chase Headley, SD - 0.7
- David Wright, NYM - 0.7
- Todd Frazier, CIN - 0.7
In yet another category Arenado doubles Uribe's metrics. Obviously, Manny Machado is the best third baseman in baseball, especially if we were to factor in offensive performance. But I think Arenado is the best in the NL, and I don't think it's all that close. Uribe has a slightly better batting average (.278) and he's been in the league longer, but the Gold Glove is given to the best defensive player at each position, in each league, even if he's a rookie.
When it comes to National League third basemen, I believe that is Nolan Arenado.
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