What's Wrong With BYU Basketball? Part 3

Now that we have looked at each of the returning players, let's look at the team as a whole and make any further necessary diagnosis.

Conference play has started well for the Cougars, with many of my concerns already being addressed. Matt Carlino seems to be back on track and completing BYU's "Big Three." If he continues to score in double figures, dish the ball to his teammates (5.25 assists per game so far in league play), and take care of the ball (only 1 turnover in the past three games, and 4.2 assist/turnover ration in league play) then BYU can be a dangerous team.

With Matt Carlino coming into form at the right time
BYU could make a run in conference play.

Brock Zylstra had a big game, Josh Sharp hasn't been shooting well of late but he has been rebounding well, especially on the offensive end. Brandon Davies hasn't been the same player since he rolled his ankle, but he has done just enough to make an impact (apart from the San Francisco game where he fouled out. Fortunately Carlino and Zylstra stepped up big in that game). Tyler Haws struggled from the line against San Francisco but has been on a tear the last couple of games, winning his second WCC Player of the Week honors this year. The starters are rolling into form, and despite still having some ups and downs they seem to be playing well as a unit and hitting their stride at the right time.

As for the other returning players, Craig Cusick's playing time has begun to increase again, apart from the Santa Clara game, and he has chipped in nicely. I expect that he will finish the season playing around 15 minutes a game and his contributions will be solid and consistent. Nate Austin remains a curious case and I still don't know what to expect from him the rest of the year. Provided Davies can stay out of foul trouble, it doesn't appear that Austin is going to play a major role the rest of the year unless he can start adding buckets in his limited playing time, but 2 points per game in conference play isn't going to get him more playing time. Anson Winder, however, is coming off a 14 minute, 10 point outing against Santa Clara and seems to be pretty close to full strength, so he could see more minutes through the remainder of conference play.

Depending on Matt Carlino's back, which seized up this week in practice, tonight's starting lineup could include Cusick, with Winder playing significant minutes at the point guard position. They could also play alongside each other depending on Zylstra's performance in the game.

The other role players on this Cougar squad remain the big question mark. I think most people expected more out of Agustin Ambrosino and Raul Delgado. Late in the non-conference schedule it seemed like Delgado may emerge as a lock-down defender, who go transition buckets who could hit the three, which is what BYU recruited him for, but he has averaged just 5 minutes and 1.75 points per game since conference play began. All of his points came in a 7 point performance against Loyola Marymount, and he has failed to score a point in the last three games. Ambrosino has made an almost imperceptible impact on the Cougars this year, prompting a position switch from the 4 to the 3, backing up Tyler Haws, where he will see even less playing time as Haws plays the vast majority of available minutes.

Last year's Colorado high school player of the year, Cory Calvert, had some nice games early in the year, but it appears that his playing time is also diminishing with Winder becoming more healthy. Big man Ian Harward, who struggled with some lower back problems early in the year, has struggled to find a place in the rotation. Even when he makes it to the floor, his propensity to foul (13.2 fouls per 40 minutes played) keeps him from making any sort of positive impact.

Kelly Olynyk (13) and Kevin Pangos (4) will make it tough
for BYU - or anyone - to make a run in the WCC.

So where do the Cougars head from here? It will be very interesting to see, and I think we can get a pretty clear indication in the next three games (home against Saint Mary's and San Diego, on the road against Gonzaga). If BYU continues to roll and can go 3-0, or even 2-1 with the one loss being a close game against top 10 Gonzaga, the Cougars can ride that momentum all the way into the NCAA tournament. If BYU drops the Saint Mary's game and the Gonzaga game, BYU could very well be NIT bound. I believe that overall BYU needs to go 2-2 in their four games against Gonzaga and Saint Mary's in order to make the NCAA tournament. These next three days could make or break the momentum that is building up and they could make or break the remainder of the season for BYU.

I believe that this BYU squad is better, albeit slightly, than last year's team, even if they have a lesser result. However, in order to duplicate last year's success and continue the streak of NCAA tournament appearances for, the "Big 3" have to stay strong and consistently put up big number. The role players will also need to contribute, but I still don't see anyone who can be a consistent scorer outside of Haws, Davies, and Carlino. Carlino remains the question mark in this trio, but if he can continue his in conference success and take over games when Haws and Davies get into foul trouble, BYU can be successful.

The concern now is health. Davies sprained his ankle and seems to be recovering, but he has also appeared out of sorts since the injury. He hasn't been as quick with his feet and consequently has found himself in old habits and foul trouble. Carlino is suffering from back spasms, and hopes to be healthy enough to play but his status is up in the air. With this happening just before this critical three game stretch, a lot of things are in doubt, and somebody else is going to need to step up for BYU if Carlino isn't ready to go and Davies gets into trouble. Haws likely won't be able to carry the entire team just yet and is going to need some help.

There are a lot of uncertainties, but watch the next eight days of Cougar basketball to likely see the fate of BYU's season.