BYU Football Preview and Picks

One the eve of the always anticipated college football season, it's time to take a look at the new look, "Go Fast Go Hard," BYU Cougars. There are areas we know we'll see success (like Cody Hoffman and Kyle Van Noy) and there are areas Cougar Nation is concerned about. We'll take a look at those, my game by game predictions, and a brief look at the national scene and who has a legitimate shot at a championship.

The Certainties

So we never know for sure, but these three groups are a pretty safe bet. We know we'll see positive production from them and there should be little to no concern, primarily because each position is led by a potential NFL caliber talent.

Wide Receivers

Cody Hoffman will likely be considered one of the
greatest receivers in BYU history.

Led by Cody Hoffman, this group will be the most productive unit on the team, provided Taysom Hill has enough time to throw to them. Hoffman will very likely end the season as the school's all time leader in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, as well as a shot at the total yards record. Skyler Ridley has turned some heads in both spring and fall camps and found himself listed as a starter heading into this weekend's game at Virginia. Ross Apo, while listed second in the depth charts behind Ridley, seems primed for a breakout year after some injury concerns derailed him a bit his first two seasons. It will also benefit him to have some consistency at the quarterback position. JD Falslev will continue to be an important and reliable option for Hill to turn to coming out of the slot position. He won't demand the defensive attention of Hoffman will be a surehanded target especially crucial on third downs.

Even deeper than these top four, this group will provide plenty of options for Taysom Hill and could wreak havoc on defensive game plans. If Apo or Ridley can have a break out year it will make it that much more difficult for teams to center their defensive game plans around Cody Hoffman.

The Front Seven

Sure the defensive line lost Ziggy Ansah, a top five NFL draft pick, and Romney Fuga, an undrafted free agent currently with the Denver Broncos, but the defensive line will still be a dominant force. Returning to action is Ethan Manumaleuna, which is particularly significant because it was his injury that caused Ziggy to be thrust into the starting role and consequently the NFL. Not a bad guy to have back on the line. After a promising freshman campaign, Bronson Kaufusi will now be a full time starter, and his knack for getting into the backfield and roughing up quarterbacks will potentially demand double teams by season's end. Remington Peck and Marques Johnson should also be solid options to round out a productive defensive line.

Van Noy may just be one of the best players in the country.

Two NFL prospects lead the line backer corps. Kyle Van Noy is one of the best college football players in the country and every offense BYU faces will be sure to know exactly where he is at all times. He has notched at least one statistic in every possible category each of the past two years and he will probably wreak havoc on every team the Cougars face this year, regardless of the final score. Because of Van Noy's dominance, Spencer Hadley's success has been largely unnoticed, but he is also drawing the attention of NFL scouts. While he doesn't find himself in the backfield as often as Van Noy, he just may well lead the team in tackles this year and he will be key in stopping the run this year. I think he's up to the task. While Uani Unga and Alani Fua are less experienced, they are athletic and have good size. It doesn't look like this unit will let up from their dominance last year, even with the losses of Brandon Ogletree and Uona Kaveinga.

Safeties

I really think Daniel Sorensen has NFL potential. He has size and he is faster than most of BYU's corners have been the past few years. We have seen his play making abilities through interceptions, tough tackles, and goal line stands. Perhaps he won't ever take over a game like Van Noy in the Poinsettia Bowl, but he is a solid player, and his running mate Craig Bills is no slacker either. They may not turn in the most dominant performances this year, and Sorensen may never play in the NFL, but they should be a unit that performs well and won't cause any concern for Bronco Mendenhall's defense.

The Question Marks

Running Backs

Let's be clear. I don't think the running backs themselves are question marks. I think the fact that the offensive line is a major concern (see below) makes me question how productive the running backs will be. I hope I'm wrong, and I hope they run roughshod over everybody this year, but I don't know if anyone in this group, talented as they are, can turn in many 100 yard performances if the O-line doesn't open some holes for them. If the offensive line can keep the defense out of the backfield, we could see some great things from the running backs.

Jamaal Williams is fast and never shies away from contact. If over the next three years he stays healthy and averages 69 yards per game he can become the school's all time leading rusher. That may be looking a little far ahead, but it's a credit to his productive freshman season as a 17 year old. He's back, and he's ready to be the guy from the beginning. Michael Alisa should be ready to go after multiple surgeries to fix his broken arm. He won't reclaim his full time starter role from Williams, but his size and power will make him a weapon in BYU's new H-back position. Paul Lasike will be a force on short yardage situations because everybody has a hard time bringing him down. As Bronco has previously pointed out, pads are a luxury to the rugby star, and he punishes anyone who steps in his way. Adam Hine is also poised for a breakout season and could see his playing time increase if he performs well in the early going. The fast paced offense will likely call for each of these guys to see significant playing time, and if the O-line helps them out they could be one of the best backfields in the country. But that's a really big if.

Much of BYU's success is up to Taysom Hill.

Quarterback

Again, this is in large part because of the offensive line, but I also have my questions about Taysom Hill at this point. We haven't seen a whole lot of him, and what we have seen was mostly positive. Having said that, what we saw from Jake Heaps was mostly positive his freshman year, and we ran him out of town the next season (which I still think we were wrong about, but that's not the point of this article). He will easily be a step up from Riley Nelson because he can throw a spiral and he's not likely to miss a wide open Cody Hoffman behind Notre Dame's defense for a game winning touchdown, but we don't know if he can be consistently accurate. We don't know if he can progress through his reads. We don't know if he can be a pass first, run second QB. When he does run, we don't know if he's as fast as he was before his knee injury. We don't know if he can stay healthy. That's a lot of things we don't know.

We do know that he has the potential to be great. We do know he is an incredible leader, as evidenced by his summer practice sessions with his receivers. We also know he led the only scoring drive against Boise State and almost won that game.

He could be Jake Heaps, he could be Steve Young, or he could be something in between.

Special Teams

I'm not worried about the return game, but I do have my questions about the kicking game. Justin Sorensen, the highly recruited kicker from Bingham High, has failed to live up to expectations in large part due to injury problems. Reports are that he has now fully recovered and is looking good and could be the impact player we all expected him to be, but we just won't know until we see him in action.

At punter, Scott Arellano is looking to replace the second team all-American Riley Stephenson. He was an all-conference punter at Foothill College last season, but that's still a long way to go before all-American. Hopefully he can fill those big shoes and team with Daniel Sorensen to down the ball inside the five on a regular basis.

The Concerns

Offensive Line

If the O-line doesn't hold up, Jamaal Williams may never
reach his full potential.

In my mind there is no greater concern than the offensive line. Sure the kicker may end up being worse or the corners may get torched on a regular basis, but if the O-line can't hold, BYU's solid running backs won't get out of the backfield, and Taysom Hill may never have time to get the ball to Cody Hoffman and company. This offensive line is inexperienced and possibly a little underweight (Michael Yeck is 6'8" and 292 pounds). Hopefully they're more powerful than that weight would indicate, but we'll see the results of that on gameday.

The other thing that concerns me is the plan for a constant rotation amongst the linemen. Ten different guys are traveling with the team to Virginia and the plan is to play them all. Will they all work together cohesively? Will it disrupt any of them from getting into a groove? Again, these things will be answered Saturday.

Corner Backs

Everyone is well aware of the injury and depth concerns at corner. Can they be overcome? Yes. But it's still a little nerve wracking that one of the second string guys started fall camp as a receiver. And both the second string guys are freshman. And neither of the starters have ever started a D-I game. And one has never played a D-I game.

No depth, no experience. The first decent quarterback/receiver combination we see (Texas, week two) just might light us up for 500 yards and 40+ points.

Game Predictions

This list could very well change from week to week based on what we see from BYU and each of their opponents, but here are my predictions for each of the Cougars matchups this year.

Remember this? 2009 was the last time BYU beat Utah.

• @ Virginia - WIN - I don't think it will be pretty as BYU adapts to their new offense and a lot of new personnel, but Virginia is young and inexperienced and won't matchup well against pretty much anyone from BYU, except maybe the corners.
• vs. Texas - LOSS -  I would really love to be proven wrong here, but Texas is one of the few Big 12 teams with a reliable quarterback in David Ash and they could very well pick us apart in the secondary.
• vs. Utah - WIN - Utah is still terrible, and BYU will finally play a decent game against them. Travis Wilson will have a rough time against a really solid Cougar front seven, and defensively they don't have a big presence to disrupt the up tempo rhythm BYU will look to get into.
• vs. Middle Tennessee - WIN - If BYU doesn't win this game it's because everyone forgot about it.
• @ Utah State - WIN - Led by Chuckie Keeton, I'm betting Utah State will turn this game into a shootout. Maybe it's because I can't bring myself to pick a loss here, but I think the Cougars pull it out.
• vs. Georgia Tech - WIN - It's the same bad team that BYU beat up on last year, and I expect more of the same.
• @ Houston - WIN - They no longer have Case Keenum and he is the reason they were a dominant team two years ago. Without him last year they were 5-7 in a bad conference. So while we like to remember Houston as a good team, they really aren't anymore.
• vs. Boise State - LOSS - Here is where things get interesting. Last year Boise State pulled out a 7-6 win against BYU in a defensive players paradise. Had Taysom Hill started that game, or at least come in a quarter sooner, BYU may have pulled it out. Now BYU will be a lot better, and Boise State will be about the same. Also, this year's contest is in Provo. But I still just don't know if BYU can pull it out.
• @ Wisconsin - LOSS - I'm betting this will be BYU's most lopsided loss of the season. Wisconsin's new head coach, Gary Anderson, beat or stayed within three points of BYU each of the last three seasons while at Utah State. Now he'll have significantly more talent around him and I don't think it will be pretty for the Cougars.
• vs. Idaho State - WIN - This game will be a welcome reprieve to the tough teams faced in the weeks leading up to the game. It will be a nice time to regroup before hitting the road again to face dangerous teams, too.
• @ Notre Dame - LOSS - Maybe BYU should have won this game last season, but I don't think they're going to be given the chance again. BYU's defense may keep them close for the first half, but I don't think our offensive line can hold up against what looks to be another tough Irish defense.
• @ Nevada - WIN - Nevada may present a challenge, especially if BYU limps into this game with little to no confidence left. But ultimately the Cougars should be the better team and should pull out the win.

I think BYU can win any of these games, but in my mind the best case scenario they go 10-2, worst case 5-7. I think they'll end up on the positive side of things, finishing 8-4 and headed for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.

National Title Contenders

Naturally, anyone could end up playing for the BCS National Championship in January. We've seen teams go from being unranked to claiming the title, so we never really know what will happen. That's part of the beauty of college football. But here are the five teams I think have the best chance at taking home the crystal ball this year.

• Alabama - This team is in the middle of one of the most dominating college football dynasties in history. They've been there before so they can handle the pressure of sitting at the top. Frankly, if Alabama doesn't win I'll be shocked.

  

  The title seems to be Alabama's to lose.

• Ohio State - Last year's undefeated campaign was impressive, but they literally had nothing to lose so they could play loose. Can they do it again this year? They have the personnel for it, and they have the coach for it, but going undefeated two years in a row is a really difficult thing to do in college football.
• South Carolina - Jadeveon Clowney could carry this team on his back. I think they'll end up as a one or two loss team, and I don't think they'll make it to the title game, but on the other hand it wouldn't surprise me.
• Oregon - With or without Chip Kelly at the helm, Oregon is still dang good. I'm not going to be surprised at all if Oregon winds up undefeated and Marcus Mariota wins the Heisman. They got a tough draw for their conference schedule, but they have the firepower to get through it.
• Texas A&M - If Johnny Manziel doesn't get suspended and if  the team doesn't get distracted by the drama he brings and if Manziel doesn't suffer a sophomore slump, then this team could be pretty darn good.

My Pick: Alabama. There just isn't a team out there as all around good as the Tide. AJ McCarron isn't flashy, but he's as steady a quarterback as there is in the country. While it will pain me to see them, and the SEC, bring home yet another title, I just don't see it happening any other way.